The airline insurance renewal season is now in full swing with at least a continuation and more likely acceleration of the downward direction of the market expected between now and the end of the year. The industry safety record, despite some losses, remains good and the “miss factor” that currently exists in the market leads us to believe that no loss will impact all the market which has and will continue to develop different loss experience.
The majority of renewals therefore come to market with growth in exposures, good loss records, healthy credit balances and a desire to pay less premium as a result. With a market that continues to have abundant capacity, high levels of competition and an aggressive broking community there will likely be a great many people who will help buyers achieve their respective goals.
October marks the start of the airline renewal season and used to be a month when a large number of renewals took place. This number has declined in recent years as consolidation and migration of renewal dates to later in the year has created a concentration of renewal activity and more importantly premium volume in the final six weeks of the year. This concentration and competition at the end of the year ensures that the vast majority are treated now worse than average with buyers looking for some form of margin of competitive advantage against their peers.
The early October renewal results have not yet shown much of an acceleration of these averages with fleet exposures increasing by 4% while passenger numbers also increased by 4%. The premium reduction of 10% translates into just US$7 million of premium being eroded thus far. The rate reductions are currently 11% for hulls and 13% on a per passenger basis.
One programme bought a 14 month policy in October 2012 and another has extended into November, meaning October has even less significance than it did in 2012.
As premium volumes reduce the importance of the attritional losses increases, even if the volume of attritional losses does not. The premium volume available to pay any catastrophe claim after the dollar swapping exercise of dealing with attritionals is a strong focus for the majority of insurers in our opinion.
2013 Net Hull & Liability Premium & Exposure Movements